Reserve risk — Bitcoin onchain, per block

Compares the price to how strongly long-term holders are refusing to sell. Low means holders are sitting tight while the price is cheap, which has been the best risk-reward; high means they are letting go into strength.

DefinitionPrice / HODL bank, with the HODL bank reconstructed as the cumulative supply-adjusted value of coin-days destroyed.

LimitProvisional and reconstructed: the original never published a closed form and no two public implementations agree. The shape is right (low at bottoms, high at tops); the level is not comparable to anyone else's chart. It also tracks cointime MVRV at a correlation of 0.999, so the two are one signal.

Unitratio

Reconstructed or not yet settled. The shape is usable, the exact level is not.

Also filed under

Cycle timing Is this cycle early or late on the clock, rather than on valuation?
Are old coins moving Are coins that sat still for years waking up and changing hands?
111-day mean price the fast half of the Pi Cycle top signal
2 x 350-day mean price the slow half of the Pi Cycle top signal
Price vs all-time high how close the price is to its record
Mayer multiple price against its 200-day average
Pi Cycle ratio distance to the Pi Cycle top signal
RHODL ratio young money against year-old money
Puell multiple miner income against its own yearly average
Blocks since the halving where we are in the four-year issuance clock

Every metric · Back to the explorer