Supply untouched for over a year

the 1y+ HODL wave

How many bitcoin have not moved in over a year. On the cycle dashboard this is the one row read upside down: a big pile of coins untouched for a year is what a bottom looks like, so a hot reading there means that pile is being spent back into the market.

DefinitionCirculating supply held in outputs aged one year or more, which is exactly the sum of the age bands at or above one year. The cycle dashboard ranks its SHARE of supply, detrended over 129,600 blocks (about 2.5 years) and inverted before ranking, so that red still means "near a top". Age is real elapsed time off a monotonised block clock (the running maximum of block timestamps), not blocks divided by 144.

LimitThe raw level only grinds upward over the years, so what the dashboard ranks is its deviation from its own multi-year trend, not its level. It also turns early: it went hot before three of the last four tops rather than at them. Age is per output, not per owner: consolidating coins or receiving change resets the clock on bitcoin nobody sold.

UnitBTC