Live from a local archival node, once a minute. Prices are the median of Kraken, Coinbase, Bitstamp and CoinGecko. These are probabilities from a queueing model, not promises: accuracy is scored daily against what actually happened and will be published here once there is enough of it to mean anything.
The model running here
A Holistic Approach for Bitcoin
Confirmation Times and Optimal Fee Selection
Predicting the confirmation time of
Bitcoin transactions
Predicting
confirmation times of Bitcoin transactions, Gundlach and co-authors
Read, not used yet
A hybrid
model combining neural networks and XGBoost
Confirmation
Time Prediction: A Classification View
Both learn from history rather than from the queue, and need months of entry-to-confirmation
times the chain does not store.
This page knows fee rates, not your transaction. It cannot see replace-by-fee bumps, out-of-band mining, or miners running non-standard policies.